EU Warns of Looming Launch Capacity Crisis as Satellite Demand Soars
Speaking at the 2nd EU Access to Space Conference in Brussels, Kubilius said the continent has cleared one hurdle only to confront a steeper one ahead. "Today, we're at a tipping point. We overcame the launcher crisis, but now we face the next maybe even bigger challenge," he told attendees.
Driving the alarm: roughly 50,000 satellites are projected to launch globally over the next ten years, a surge that global launch infrastructure is not equipped to handle, according to Kubilius.
That mismatch, he said, is already reshaping the market. "The result, fierce competition for limited launch opportunities, huge increase in prices, putting national and European space ambitions at risk," Kubilius said.
By the numbers: The EU alone will require 62 launches by 2034 to support flagship programs such as Galileo, Copernicus and IRIS², Kubilius said — a nearly sixfold jump in European launch demand. He laid out the strain vehicle by vehicle: "Ariane (launch vehicle) is set to launch 10 times a year, but we will need 14 launches in 2031 alone," and "Vega will launch six times a year, but we will need eight Vega launches in 2030 alone."
The bottleneck isn't limited to rockets, he added — launch pads and testing facilities on the ground are just as strained. "So we must fill this gap," Kubilius said.
The bigger stakes: For Kubilius, the issue cuts to the heart of European sovereignty in space. "Autonomous access to space is the most important objective. We must not be dependent on foreign rockets," he said.
Closing the gap, he argued, will demand heavier investment and tighter coordination between the European Commission, the European Space Agency and individual member states.
What's next: Kubilius said he plans to tour launch sites, manufacturing plants and test centers across Europe to pinpoint bottlenecks firsthand, ahead of an action plan on European access to space due to be unveiled next year.
He left no doubt about where the priority lies. "And I want everybody to understand that launching is our most important strategic priority," Kubilius said.
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